New polling reveals Republican candidates maintain commanding advantages in Florida’s highest-profile 2026 races, with Congressman Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly by 7 points for governor while Senator Ashley Moody holds a 10-point lead over challenger Angie Nixon in the Senate contest.
Poll Shows GOP Strength Across Major Races
The NBC South Florida/Telemundo Station Group survey found Donalds capturing 48% support compared to Jolly’s 41% in the gubernatorial race. The congressman from southwest Florida has enjoyed a substantial financial advantage throughout the campaign. Moody performs even stronger in her Senate reelection bid, reaching 50% against Nixon’s 40%. Nixon, aligned with Democratic Socialists of America, surprised political observers by defeating Alexander Vindman in the August primary.
These results suggest limits to Democratic momentum in a year when the party has made traditionally Republican states more competitive nationwide. Florida appears to be bucking that trend, with GOP candidates maintaining solid footing despite broader national headwinds for Republicans.
Hispanic Voters Show Shifting Allegiances
Among Florida’s influential Hispanic population, concentrated heavily in South Florida, the numbers tell a nuanced story. Donalds leads Jolly 48% to 43% among Hispanic voters, while Moody holds a 47% to 40% advantage over Nixon. However, President Trump’s job approval sits underwater with this demographic at 45% approval versus 49% disapproval. Among all Florida voters, Trump’s approval splits evenly at 48% approve and 48% disapprove.
These figures represent a potential shift from 2024, when Trump won Hispanic-heavy Miami-Dade County by roughly 11 points, reversing the county’s traditional Democratic lean. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene cited recent Florida special election victories as evidence the party has begun reclaiming Hispanic voters, partly due to dissatisfaction with immigration enforcement policies and inflation concerns.
Economy Dominates Voter Priorities
Inflation and cost of living emerged as the dominant issue, with 30% of voters identifying it as most likely to influence their vote. Direction of the state or country ranked second at 17% overall. Immigration enforcement placed third among all voters at 16%, though Hispanic voters ranked property taxes third at 13%. Support for allowing local cooperation with federal immigration officials split sharply along partisan lines, with 85% of Republicans supporting the policy compared to just 18% of Democrats and 44% of independents.
Property taxes have gained prominence with a ballot measure, Amendment 3, proposing increased exemptions for the first $250,000 of home value, backed by the state Republican Party and term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis.